The 2020 Presidential Election: A Race Against Mortality (#12) by Linus Wilson

https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-4uzda-d07db6

A year from the inauguration, four of the top five Democratic 2020 U.S. Presidential election candidates in the polls are in their seventies. Using actuarial data and the history of Presidential assassinations, the top two contenders, Former Vice President Joe Biden and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, have a 24 to 29 percent chance of not surviving to the end of a hypothetical first term. The 77 and 78-year-old men’s chances of dying before the end of a second term as POTUS are between 46 and 56 percent.

The 2020 Presidential Election: A Race Against Mortality

by Dr. Linus Wilson, University of Louisiana at Lafayette

 Dr. Wilson reads his paper on episode 12 of The Finance Professor Podcast

 

 

Download the full paper at https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3523251 or go to linuswilson.com or financeprofessor.org 

 

Below is the introduction of the paper:

  1. Introduction

 

Generations of Americans have never lived to see an American President die in office. Indeed, the last President to die was John F. Kennedy who in 1963 died from an assassin’s bullet at the relatively young age of 46 years. That was over 56 years from the start of the first in the nation nominating contest in 2020, the February 3, Iowa Democratic Caucuses. You would have to go back to Franklin D. Roosevelt’s death in office in 1945 in his record 4th term to find a U.S. President who died of “natural causes”. To be alive for that event in 2020, someone would have to be 74 years old. To have voted for FDR, someone would have to be at least 96 years old. (The voting age was not lowered from 21 to 18 years old until March 21, 1971, with the ratification of the 26th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.)

According to Panetta (2020), on January 20, 2017, Donald Trump became the oldest President to be sworn in to his first term at 70 years 222 days old. Joseph Biden, Bernie Sanders, and Michael Bloomberg, aged 77, 78, and 77 were all at least three years older than Donald Trump, who was 73, on January 15, 2020. Biden, Sanders, and Bloomberg were 1st, 2nd, and 5th in the Real Clear Politics Democratic Primary polling average on that day. The 3rd place democratic candidate, Elizabeth Warren on that date was 70 and would be older than Donald Trump was at his inauguration in 2017 if she won the election and took office on January 20, 2021.

The likely winner of the 2020 election based on betting markets will be pushing the bounds of life expectancy at birth at some time during his tenure in office. He or she will likely be the oldest person to take the oath of office of President of the United States. This paper seeks to quantify the chances that the leading candidates will die before their first or second term in office using actuarial life expectancy data.

If we project out a year out from the January 20, 2021, inauguration, Former Vice President Joseph Biden, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, and Billionaire Michael Bloomberg have 24 to 29 percent chance of dying before the end of their first term as President of the United States. The range depends on the age and gender of the candidate and how we account for the chances of assassination. Those same leading Democratic challengers have a 46 to 56 percent chance of not surviving two terms as President of the United States (POTUS).

Kenski and Jamieson (2010) found that perceptions of the septuagenarian Republican nominee John McCain changed through the course of the 2008 election. Voters increasing perceived him a “too old” as election day neared. Thus, the current preference for older candidates by voters may change as the 2020 election progresses. Senator McCain died in 2018 at the age of 81, according to Pitzl (2018).

If the field of viable candidates survives to inauguration day, January 20, 2021, this paper finds that there is a 16 to 21 percent chance that the man or woman sworn in will die before the end of his or her four-year Presidential term on January 20, 2025.

In section 2, we discuss our data collection and how we determined if a 2020 Presidential candidate was “viable.” In section 3, we discuss the death probability calculations in table 2. In section 4, the paper concludes.

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Blow Up YT Algorithm 2019: Watch Time v. % Retention on YouTube #YouTubeAlgorithm #GetMoreViews

There is a big debate among video creators if they should focus on percent audience retention versus minutes watch time per view. Dr. Linus Wilson uses his groundbreaking study to settle this debate as to which metric will trigger the YouTube algorithm and allow you to have a viral video that blows up the internet.

This is based on Dr. Wilson’s study “Clickbait Works! The secret to getting views with the YouTube algorithm”

Wilson, Linus, Clickbait Works! The secret to getting views with the YouTube algorithm (April 9, 2019). Available at SSRN:
https://ssrn.com/abstract=3369353

Click the link. Hit the download button. Click the link to download without registering below the dude’s picture. Prove you are not a computer, and you have the algorithm study that can blow up your channel for FREE.

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Abstract
In 2018, YouTube began releasing click-through rates (CTR) data to its video creators. Since 2012, YouTube has emphasized how it favors watch time over clicks in its recommendations to viewers. This is the first academic study employing that data to test what matters more for views on YouTube. Is watch time or CTR more important to getting views on YouTube? This paper finds no to limited evidence that higher percent audience retention or and total average watch time per view are associated with more views on YouTube. Instead, videos with higher CTR got significantly more views as did videos on trending or newsworthy topics. The marginal benefit in terms of views scaled by subscribers of increased CTR is between 71 and 318 times larger than the marginal benefits of increased watch time per view.

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P1-Intro Mueller Report Audiobook

I read the Mueller Report released on April 18, 2019. This is an introduction to the Special Counsel’s Russia Investigation Report that stretches 448 pages. This is a reading of the first two pages. If a lot of you watch, I’ll keep recording readings. You can download the full Mueller Report.

report

Special Counsel Robert S. Mueller III was a former FBI director appointed by Rod Rosenstein Deputy Attorney General in May 2017 to investigate Russian Interference into the 2016 election between Hilary Clinton and Donald J. Trump. Mueller finds that the Russians did try to influence the 2016 election in favor of Donald Trump and did have contacts with the Trump campaign in the 2016 election, but they did not find enough evidence to bring the charge of conspiracy.

Clip from public domain WH.gov video “President Trump Delivers Remarks and Signs an Executive Order on Energy & Infrastructure”

Public domain Department of Justice photo of Robert S. Mueller as FBI director.

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Don’t LIKE me, YT Algorithm! View me. YouTube likes & dislikes % ratio 2019

If you want more views on YouTube, get more DISLIKES. Getting a lot of dislikes, contrary to popular opinion, is not a bad thing. It may even be an indicator that you have set off the YouTube search and discovery algorithm. Dr. Linus Wilson discusses his new research on the YouTube algorithm that shows that getting more dislikes or a lower like percentage is associated with getting MORE views and a higher click-through rate (CTR). CTR is the most important factor in triggering the YouTube algorithm’s search and discovery recommendations. Video creators who try to manipulate the like to dislike ratios or percentages are ultimately misguided. There are much better calls to action that they could make to their views like subscribing or recommending another video. Controversial or newsy topics may be more clickable and inspire higher CTR and higher watch time.

This is based on Dr. Wilson’s study “Clickbait Works! The secret to getting views with the YouTube algorithm”

Wilson, Linus, Clickbait Works! The secret to getting views with the YouTube algorithm (April 9, 2019). Available at SSRN:
https://ssrn.com/abstract=3369353

Click the link. Hit the download button. Click the link to download without registering below the dude’s picture. Prove you are not a computer, and you have the algorithm study that can blow up your channel for FREE.

Abstract
In 2018, YouTube began releasing click-through rates (CTR) data to its video creators. Since 2012, YouTube has emphasized how it favors watch time over clicks in its recommendations to viewers. This is the first academic study employing that data to test what matters more for views on YouTube. Is watch time or CTR more important to getting views on YouTube? This paper finds no to limited evidence that higher percent audience retention or and total average watch time per view are associated with more views on YouTube. Instead, videos with higher CTR got significantly more views as did videos on trending or newsworthy topics. The marginal benefit in terms of views scaled by subscribers of increased CTR is between 71 and 318 times larger than the marginal benefits of increased watch time per view.

Keywords: YouTube, algorithm, search, discovery, video, CTR, click-through rates, clickbait, watch time, audience retention, neural networks, recommendation systems

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http://www.linuswilson.com
http://www.financeprofessor.org

Ep. 11: “Clickbait Works! The secret to getting views with the YouTube algorithm” by Linus Wilson on the Finance Professor Podcast

Professor Linus Wilson discusses his new paper “Clickbait Works! The secret to getting views with the YouTube algorithm on episode 11 of the Finance Professor Podcast.” There is a lot of contradictory advice about what metrics the largest video sharing site in the world and the second largest social network promotes. Using a new data set available to YouTube creators starting in 2018, Dr. Wilson finds that click-through rates are by far the most important predictor of a new video getting views from YouTube’s black-box recommendation system.

The link is https://ssrn.com/abstract=3369353

Click the download button for a free download. Next, if you don’t want to register or login with SSRN, click “Download without registration” under the gray text under the picture of Greg Gordon.

“Clickbait Works! The secret to getting views with the YouTube algorithm”

By Dr. Linus Wilson

Abstract

In 2018, YouTube began releasing click-through rates (CTR) data to its video creators. Since 2012, YouTube has emphasized how it favors watch time over clicks in its recommendations to viewers. This is the first academic study employing that data to test what matters more for views on YouTube. Is watch time or CTR more important to getting views on YouTube? This paper finds no to limited evidence that higher percent audience retention or and total average watch time per view are associated with more views on YouTube. Instead, videos with higher CTR got significantly more views as did videos on trending or newsworthy topics. The marginal benefit in terms of views scaled by subscribers of increased CTR is between 71 and 318 times larger than the marginal benefits of increased watch time per view.

Journal of Economic Literature Codes:  D12, D22, D26, D83, D85, L15, L21, L82, L86, M15

Keywords:  YouTube, algorithm, search, discovery, video, CTR, click-through rates, clickbait, watch time, audience retention, neural networks, recommendation systems

Wilson, Linus, Clickbait Works! The secret to getting views with the YouTube algorithm (April 9, 2019). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3369353

For all of Linus Wilson’s research go to

www.financeprofessor.org

clickbait

Secret Wall Street Bailout Uncovered – Broken Bucks: Money Funds & Taxpayer Guarantees

Find out about the secret $2.7 trillion bailout of Money Market Mutual Funds MMMFs in 2008. The collapse of Lehman Brothers its commercial paper default caused the Primary Reserve Fund to “break the buck” or sell for less than $1.00 per share. Linus Wilson presents his paper at the Southwest Finance Association (SWFA) & Federation of Business Disciplines (FBD) conference at the Hyatt Regency in Houston, Texas on March 15, 2019.

Wilson, Linus, Broken Bucks: Money Funds that Took Taxpayer Guarantees in 2008 (August 28, 2015). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2195358 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2195358

The U.S. Treasury rolled out a bailout guarantee on September 19, 2008 without Congressional approval using the exchange rate stabilization fund led by Hank Paulson, David Nason, and Steve Shafran. Paulson and Shafran were Goldman Sach alums (p. 263) ON THE BRINK by Henry Paulson.

Broken Bucks: Money Funds that Took Taxpayer Guarantees in 2008
42 Pages Posted: 2 Jan 2013 Last revised: 29 Aug 2015
Linus Wilson
University of Louisiana at Lafayette – College of Business Administration

Date Written: August 28, 2015

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Abstract
This is the first study to look at the characteristics of funds accepting the $2.7 trillion taxpayer guarantee of money market mutual funds during the 2008 financial crisis. Funds with lower asset maturities were significantly less likely to need federal or sponsor bailouts. Fund shares that benefited from Federal Reserve’s asset-backed commercial paper program were significantly more likely to get bailed out by taxpayers and sponsors. Finally, the paper tests if funds adhering to the SEC’s 2010 liquidity reforms prior to their enactment were less likely to be bailed out in 2008.

Keywords: breaking the buck, bailout, Dodd-Frank, DLA, exchange rate stabilization fund, Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), guarantees, liquidity, money market mutual funds, Primary Reserve Fund, regulation, SEC, Securities and Exchange Commission, U.S. Treasury, WAL, WAM, WLA

JEL Classification: G01, G18, G22, G23, G28, H12, H81, L5

Music by http://www.BenSound.com
(c) Linus Wilson, 2019
http://www.linuswilson.com
http://www.financeprofessor.org

U.S. Treasury portrait of Secretary Henry Paulson was completed in 2010 image at https://www.treasury.gov/about/history/pages/Steven Shafranhmpaulson.aspx
by Aaron Shikler